Archives: Monthly Archives: April 2016
CEE & ENVE COLLOQUIUM SERIES: Probabilistic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification with an Analog Ensemble
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING SPRING 2016 COLLOQUIUM SERIES
Friday, February 12, 2016 • 12:15 PM • Storrs Hall, Room WW16
Probabilistic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification with an Analog Ensemble
Luca Delle Monache
Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Abstract: The analog of a forecast for a given location and time is defined as the observation that corresponds to a past prediction matching selected features of the current forecast. The best analogs form the analog ensemble (AnEn). The AnEn is a general method to generate probabilistic predictions that has been tested successfully for a range of applications including weather predictions, climate downscaling, renewable energy (wind and solar), air quality (ground-level ozone and particulate matter), and hurricane intensity. The recurring features found across different applications are:
- The ability to use a higher resolution model since only one real-time deterministic forecast is needed to generate an ensemble;
- No need for initial condition or model perturbation strategies to generate an ensemble;
- Reliable uncertainty quantification, i.e., no additional ensemble calibration is required;
- Ability to capture the flow-dependent error characteristics.
- A superior skill in predicting rare event;
Examples of AnEn current applications will be shown, and a discussion on how this technique could be implemented for probabilistic predictions of weather parameters over a two-dimensional gridded domain will follow.
Presenter’s Bio:
Luca Delle Monache is the Deputy Science Director of the National Security Applications Program of the Research Applications Laboratory with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. He earned a Laurea (M.S.) in Mathematics from the University of Rome, Italy (1997), a M.S. in Meteorology from the San Jose State University, San Jose, California (2002), and a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada (2006). Before joining NCAR he worked at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. His main interests include probabilistic predictions, uncertainty quantification and ensemble design, urban meteorology, mesoscale numerical weather prediction, ensemble data assimilation, boundary layer meteorology, air pollution, inverse and dispersion modeling, and renewable energy prediction and resource assessment.
To access this seminar’s live broadcast or recording please use the following link: https://mediasite.dl.uconn.edu/Mediasite/Play/107cc29e625744038f830910b0c29a061d
Location of the room: http://maps.uconn.edu/map/locations/148
PPT Slides
CEE & ENVE COLLOQUIUM SERIES: Environmental Engineering Applications of Nanoparticles
ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING SPRING 2016 COLLOQUIUM SERIES
Friday, February 5, 2016 • 12:15 PM • CAST 212
Environmental Engineering Applications of Nanoparticles
Dr. Vinka Oyanedel-Craver
Associate Professor, Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Rhode Island
Abstract: Environmental nanotechnology involves the use of nanoscale materials for environmental contexts and the study of potential environmental, health, and safety risks of nanotechnology. Due to the unique properties of nanoparticles and nanomaterials (e.g., chemical reactivity, electronic properties, photochemical properties, and antimicrobial activity), have the potential for their application in environmental remediation, water purification and products recycling and recovery.
The increasing used of these materials in consumer products will result in the release nanomaterials into natural and engineered environmental compartments (water, air, soil). Recent studies have shown that acute exposure of nanoparticles can have negative effects on fish, bacteria, and human cells cultures, inevitable concerns had raised on the impacts of the nanomaterials on the environment and human health.
This talk will cover topics such as, (1) fate, transport, and reactivity of nanoparticles and nanomaterial (2) use of nanotechnology for environmental applications, (3) biological uptake and toxicity nanomaterials; and (3) “greener” design of nanomaterials”.
